A fully consistent, minimal model for non-linear market impact
We propose a minimal theory of non-linear price impact based on a linear (latent) order book approximation, inspired by diffusion-reaction models and general arguments. Our framework allows one to compute the average price trajectory in the presence of a meta-order, that consistently generalises previously proposed propagator models. We account for the universally observed square-root impact law, and predict non-trivial trajectories when trading is interrupted or reversed.
We prove that our framework is free of price manipulation, and that prices can be made diffusive (albeit with a generic short-term mean-reverting contribution). Our model suggests that prices can be decomposed into a transient 'mechanical' impact component and a permanent 'informational' component.