Are financial crashes predictable?

9 April 1998

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We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of log-periodic oscillations or by other methods inspired by the physics of critical phenomena. In particular, the October 1997 'correction' does not appear to be the accumulation point of a geometric series of local minima.

 

Authors

Laurent Laloux , Marc Potters , Rama Cont , Jean-Pierre Aguilar , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud