Black was right: Price is within a factor 2 of Value
We provide further evidence that markets trend on the medium term (months) and mean-revert on the long term (several years).
Our results bolster Black’s intuition that prices tend to be off roughly by a factor of 2, and take years to equilibrate.
The story behind these results fits well with the existence of two types of behaviour in financial markets: 'chartists', who act as trend followers, and 'fundamentalists', who set in when the price is clearly out of line.
Mean-reversion is a self-correcting mechanism, tempering (albeit only weakly) the exuberance of financial markets.